Impact and Mechanism of New Quality Productivity in Agriculture on the Resilience of Grain Production

Food security is a fundamental pillar of national security, and enhancing the resilience of food production is crucial for ensuring a stable long-term food supply. Modern agricultural productivity, as a new form of productive capacity integrating technological innovation, factor restructuring, and model transformation, provides novel approaches to address the multiple challenges faced by food production. This study, based on provincial panel data from 2013 to 2022, employs the entropy method to measure food production resilience and the development level of modern agricultural productivity, and systematically examines the direct impact, indirect mechanisms, and differentiated effects of modern agricultural productivity on food production resilience. The findings indicate that modern agricultural productivity significantly enhances food production resilience, which remains valid after robustness checks, including the exclusion of extreme values and instrumental variable methods. Rural financial vitality and large-scale land management play partial mediating roles in this relationship. By heterogeneity analysis, modern agricultural productivity has a more pronounced effect on enhancing food production resilience in non-major grain-producing regions, while the impact on major grain-producing areas is relatively weaker but still statistically significant. The level of agricultural technology positively moderates the impact of modern agricultural productivity on food production resilience. The findings would provide theoretical support and practical guidance for improving policies on the development of modern agricultural productivity, accurately enhancing food production resilience, and strengthening national food security.