Economic Maturity and Investment Risk Analysis of Plantations——A Case Study of Eucalyptus cloeziana in Guangxi Dongmen Forest Farm

Determining the optimal rotation period and assessing investment risks are crucial for enhancing the profitability and ensuring the security of plantation investments.Taking a Eucalyptus cloeziana plantation in Guangxi State-Owned Dongmen Forest Farm,we explored the economic maturity of plantations and the sensitivity of investment returns to key factors.Utilizing cash flow analysis,a full-life-cycle evaluation framework based on the Faustmann model was constructed.A comprehensive evaluation system combining dynamic indicators such as Net Present Value（NPV）and Internal Rate of Return（IRR） with static indicators like investment profit rate was employed.Sensitivity analysis revealed that timber price was the most sensitive factor affecting investment returns,followed by unit output and investment cost.Cultivating large-diameter timber is an effective way to enhance plantation management benefits.Plantation investments require close attention to market risks.It is recommended to adopt measures such as optimizing management strategies,developing understory economy,and establishing risk compensation mechanisms to improve project risk resilience.The findings provide a theoretical basis and methodological reference for plantation investors’ decision-making and risk management.