Multi-scenario Simulation of Land Use and Habitat Quality Change in Tao River Basin Using PLUS-InVEST Model

Land use change has an important impact on the evolution of habitat quality. This study explores the impact of land use change on habitat quality under different scenarios and provides suggestions for regional ecological protection and the sustainable use of land resources. The study adopts the framework of “ historical analysis — scenario simulation — spatial assessment ”, analyzing data from 2000 to 2020 in the past 20 years. It integrates the PLUS-InVEST model and the spatial autocorrelation method to analyze the characteristics of land use and habitat quality in different river basins. The results show that: (1) Over the past 20 years, land use changes in the Taohe Basin are mainly reflected in the mutual conversion of cropland and forestland, frequent dynamic changes of grassland, a significant reduction in water area, and the expansion of construction land and unused land. The habitat quality is generally at a medium level, showing a trend of first declining and then rising. (2) By 2030, in both the natural development scenario and the ecological protection scenario, the decrease in cropland, forestland, and water area will increase. In the natural development scenario and the cropland protection scenario, the area of construction land will expand significantly while the grassland area will decrease the most. Overall, the areas of grassland and unused land will decrease steadily. (3) Compared to 2020, in 2030, the average habitat quality index in the Taohe Basin will vary across different scenarios. The ranking of the habitat quality index in the descending order is: ecological protection scenario, natural development scenario, and cropland protection scenario. In the ecological protection scenario, the high-high agglomeration and low-low agglomeration areas of the habitat quality index will decrease significantly, and the low-high agglomeration area will spread from the northeast to the central region. In the future, ecological protection measures are the best way to promote sustainable development in the Taohe Basin.