Research on the Fluctuation Characteristics of Carbon Allowance Price Based on ARMA-GARCH Cluster Model

Under the guidance of the “double carbon” goal,China’s carbon market is in a critical period of transition from regional pilot to national unification. How to achieve local connection to the national carbon market has become an urgent problem to be solved. This paper takes the carbon price of six carbon trading markets in Beijing,Shanghai,Guangdong,Hubei,Tianjin and China as the research object,this paper quantitatively analyzed the carbon price fluctuation by establishing the ARMA-GARCH cluster model. The research results showed that the carbon prices of the six carbon markets were significantly affected by early trading,and the price fluctuation had cluster effect and asymmetric impact effect. Therefore,it put forward relevant suggestions to enrich the trading subjects,trading products and to improve the market pricing mechanism.