Research on the Characteristics of Agricultural Product Price Fluctuation Based on ARCH Model

Based on the monthly price index from January 2011 to August 2022,this paper used the autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity ARCH model to analyze the price fluctuation characteristics of pork,beef,cotton,soybean,rice and mutton. The results showed that the four agricultural products with significant ARCH effects were beef,soybean,pork and cotton. Among them,the prices of agricultural products with fluctuating agglomeration characteristics are beef,soybeans,pork,cotton;The prices of beef,soybeans,pork,and cotton didn’t have the characteristics of high risk and high reward;The prices of agricultural products were asymmetric,which were cotton,soybeans,pork. Based on the research and analysis results,this paper put forward relevant policy suggestions to provide reference for the price regulation of agricultural product market.