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数字经济政策对农业高质量发展的影响研究——基于国家大数据综合试验区的准自然实验

The Impact of Digital Economy Policies on High-Quality Agricultural Development—A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on China's National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zones

  • 摘要: 在数字经济与农业高质量发展深度融合的背景下,国家大数据综合试验区作为数字经济政策落地的重要载体,能否有效提升农业高质量发展水平,以及该效应是否存在空间溢出与区域异质性,仍需进一步检验。基于2011-2023年中国31个省级行政区面板数据,以国家大数据综合试验区建设为准自然实验,运用多期双重差分模型评估数字经济政策对农业高质量发展的影响,并通过倾向得分匹配双重差分、合成双重差分、安慰剂检验及其他稳健性检验验证研究结论,进一步采用空间杜宾模型和粮食功能区异质性检验考察其空间效应与区域差异。研究发现:(1)数字经济政策显著促进农业高质量发展,且政策效应具有一定的滞后性和累积性;(2)数字经济政策对本地区农业高质量发展具有显著的正向直接效应,但对其他地区产生负向空间溢出,呈现"本地促进、外部抑制"的空间特征;(3)数字经济政策的促进作用呈现一定的粮食功能区差异,非粮食主产区的估计效应相对更强。基于此,应持续完善农业数字基础设施和数据应用体系,加强区域间数字资源共享与政策协同,并根据不同地区的资源禀赋、产业基础和数字技术吸收能力实施差异化支持,以提升数字经济政策赋能农业高质量发展的整体效能。

     

    Abstract: Against the backdrop of the deep integration of the digital economy and high-quality agricultural development, China's National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zones have become an important policy vehicle for advancing the digital economy. However, whether this policy can effectively improve the level of high-quality agricultural development, and whether its effects exhibit spatial spillovers and regional heterogeneity, remain to be further examined. Using panel data for 31 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2011 to 2023, this study treats the establishment of the National Big Data Comprehensive Pilot Zones as a quasi-natural experiment and employs a staggered difference-in-differences model to evaluate the impact of digital economy policies on high-quality agricultural development. The robustness of the findings is further examined through propensity score matching difference-in-differences, synthetic difference-in-differences, placebo tests, and other robustness checks. A spatial Durbin model and heterogeneity analysis across grain-producing functional regions are then used to investigate the spatial effects and regional differences of the policy. The results show that: (1) digital economy policies significantly promote high-quality agricultural development, and the policy effects exhibit a certain degree of lag and accumulation; (2) digital economy policies exert a significant positive direct effect on high-quality agricultural development in local regions, but generate negative spatial spillover effects on other regions, displaying a spatial pattern of "local promotion and external inhibition"; and (3) the promotional effects of digital economy policies vary across grain-producing functional regions, with relatively stronger estimated effects in non-major grain-producing regions. Accordingly, efforts should be made to continuously improve agricultural digital infrastructure and data application systems, strengthen interregional digital resource sharing and policy coordination, and implement differentiated support policies in accordance with regional resource endowments, industrial foundations, and capacities to absorb digital technologies, thereby enhancing the overall effectiveness of digital economy policies in promoting high-quality agricultural development.

     

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