Abstract: The “forest-for-farmland swap” initiative aims to resolve the spatial zero-sum game between farmland conservation and ecological development; however, in practice, it has become trapped in a cumulative cycle of inaccurate assessment—imbalanced interests—failed coordination—disordered management, rooted in a system lock-in created by the mutually reinforcing fragmentation of governance across four dimensions: technology, interests, departments, and safeguards. We reveal the evolutionary logic of forest-for-farmland conversion, from unidirectional farmland conversion to spatial coordination, analyze the chain reaction mechanism of the fourfold dilemma, and propose an integrated reform pathway of precise assessment—coordination of rights and interests—high-level coordination—institutional consolidation. The research indicates that only by breaking this vicious cycle can a multidimensional win-win outcome be achieved in terms of farmland protection, ecological restoration, and rural development.