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数农融合对农业产业链供应链现代化的影响研究

Impact of Digital Economy-Agriculture Integration on the Modernization of Agricultural Industrial Chain and Supply Chain

  • 摘要: 探究数农融合对农业产业链供应链现代化的驱动效应及其传导机制,对推进农业农村现代化具有重要现实意义。基于2011—2023年中国31个省份的面板数据,分别构建数农融合与农业产业链供应链现代化的测度体系,并运用双向固定效应模型与机制分析模型,实证检验其直接影响与传导路径。结果表明:数农融合对农业产业链供应链现代化具有显著促进作用,经更换估计方法、剔除特殊样本、缩尾处理、替换核心解释变量、系统GMM估计及工具变量法等多种稳健性检验后结论依旧稳健。机制分析表明,农业全要素生产率的提升与农村三次产业融合发展,构成数农融合间接推动农业产业链供应链升级的两条主要路径。进一步地,异质性分析表明,数农融合的促进效果整体呈现中部领先、东部次之、西部相对较弱的梯度特征,且在粮食主产区及高数字经济发展水平地区表现更为突出。据此,应立足区域梯度格局实施差异化推进策略,围绕关键传导路径精准施策,并建立差异化的要素保障与效果跟踪机制。

     

    Abstract: Exploring the driving effects and transmission mechanisms of digital economy-agriculture integration on the modernization of agricultural industrial chains and supply chains holds significant practical implications for advancing agricultural and rural modernization. Based on panel data from 31 Chinese provinces spanning 2011 to 2023, this paper constructs measurement systems for digital economy-agriculture integration and the modernization of agricultural industrial chains and supply chains, and employs two-way fixed effects models and mechanism analysis models to empirically examine their direct impacts and transmission pathways. The results show that digital economy-agriculture integration significantly promotes the modernization of agricultural industrial chains and supply chains, and this conclusion remains robust after a series of robustness checks, including alternative estimation methods, sample exclusion, winsorization, replacement of the core explanatory variable, system GMM estimation, and instrumental variable approaches. Mechanism analysis indicates that the enhancement of agricultural total factor productivity and the integrated development of rural primary, secondary, and tertiary industries constitute the two primary pathways through which digital economy-agriculture integration indirectly drives the modernization upgrading of agricultural industrial chains and supply chains. Furthermore, heterogeneity analysis reveals that the promoting effect of digital economy-agriculture integration exhibits a gradient pattern with the central region leading, followed by the eastern region, and the western region relatively weaker, with more pronounced impacts in major grain-producing areas and regions with higher levels of digital economic development. Accordingly, differentiated promotion strategies should be implemented based on the regional gradient pattern, targeted policies should be devised along the key transmission pathways, and differentiated factor guarantee and effect tracking mechanisms should be established.

     

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