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生态补偿政策实施对县域城镇化的影响效应研究——基于纳入国家重点生态功能区的准自然实验

Impact of Ecological Compensation Policy Implementation on County Urbanization——A Natural Experiment from National Key Ecological Function Zone

  • 摘要: 持续推进城镇化和生态超载人口转移仍是国家重点生态功能区各县的必然趋势,纵向生态补偿是可以凭借的重要经济手段。基于2007—2022年403个县级面板数据,利用县域被纳入国家重点生态功能区作为准自然实验,构建多期双重差分模型评估生态补偿政策实施对县域城镇化的影响效应及机制,结果表明:生态补偿与财政转移支付倾斜政策显著促进了县域城镇化进程,该结论在更换被解释变量、调整样本范围和PSM-DID检验后依然稳健;经济发达程度与政府干预程度分别发挥正向与负向调节作用;该政策效果主要体现在工业基础较好的县域,并且在城镇化水平较低县域中表现更明显。据此提出:纵向生态补偿政策应完善差异化配置机制,重点向生态保护任务重、财政基础薄弱、公共服务短板明显且具备一定人口承载潜力的生态功能型县域倾斜;生态功能型县域应严控生态保护红线和土地开发强度,引导生态超载人口向县城和重点镇有序迁移、适度集中,实现县域内就地城镇化;同时,应强化生态补偿资金对绿色产业培育、就业吸纳和公共服务改善的支持,并根据工业基础、政府干预程度和城镇化阶段分类施策,提高资金使用绩效,避免财政依赖和无序扩张。

     

    Abstract: Continuing to promote urbanization and the relocation of ecologically overburdened populations remains an inevitable trend for counties within national key ecological function zones, and vertical ecological compensation provides an important economic instrument to support this process. Based on panel data from 403 counties during 2007—2022, we take the inclusion of counties in national key ecological function zones as a natural experiment and construct a multi-period difference-in-differences model to evaluate the effects and mechanisms of ecological compensation policies on county-level urbanization. The results show that ecological compensation and preferential fiscal transfer payments significantly promote county-level urbanization, and this finding remains robust after replacing the dependent variable, adjusting the sample range, and conducting PSM-DID tests. Economic development and government intervention play positive and negative moderating roles, respectively. The policy effect is mainly observed in counties with a stronger industrial foundation and is more pronounced in counties with lower levels of urbanization. Accordingly, vertical ecological compensation policies should improve differentiated allocation mechanisms, with greater support directed to ecological function counties that shoulder heavy ecological protection tasks, have weak fiscal capacity and obvious public service shortcomings, yet possess certain potential for population carrying capacity. Ecological function counties should strictly observe ecological protection red lines and control land development intensity, while guiding ecologically overburdened populations to relocate in an orderly manner and moderately concentrate in county seats and key towns, so as to promote local urbanization within the county. At the same time, ecological compensation funds should provide stronger support for green industry cultivation, employment absorption, and public service improvement. Differentiated measures should also be adopted according to industrial foundation, government intervention intensity, and urbanization stage, in order to improve fund-use efficiency and avoid fiscal dependence and disorderly expansion.

     

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