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农业新质生产力对粮食生产韧性的影响及作用机制研究

Impact and Mechanism of New Quality Productivity in Agriculture on the Resilience of Grain Production

  • 摘要: 粮食安全是国家安全的重要基石,粮食生产韧性的提升是保障粮食长期稳定供给的核心支撑。农业新质生产力作为融合科技创新、要素重构与模式变革的新型生产能力,为破解粮食生产面临的多重冲击提供了新路径。基于2013—2022年省级面板数据,运用熵值法测度粮食生产韧性与农业新质生产力发展水平,并深入剖析农业新质生产力对粮食生产韧性的直接影响及作用机制。研究表明:农业新质生产力显著提升了粮食生产韧性,该结论在剔除极端值、工具变量法等稳健性检验后依然成立;农村金融活力与土地规模化经营在两者关系中发挥部分中介作用;异质性分析显示,农业新质生产力对非粮食主产区粮食生产韧性的提升效应更为显著,对粮食主产区的影响程度相对较低但仍具统计显著性;农业科技水平在农业新质生产力对粮食生产韧性的影响中起到正向调节作用。研究结论为完善农业新质生产力发展政策、精准提升粮食生产韧性、筑牢国家粮食安全屏障提供了理论依据与实践参考。

     

    Abstract: Food security is a fundamental pillar of national security, and enhancing the resilience of food production is crucial for ensuring a stable long-term food supply. Modern agricultural productivity, as a new form of productive capacity integrating technological innovation, factor restructuring, and model transformation, provides novel approaches to address the multiple challenges faced by food production. This study, based on provincial panel data from 2013 to 2022, employs the entropy method to measure food production resilience and the development level of modern agricultural productivity, and systematically examines the direct impact, indirect mechanisms, and differentiated effects of modern agricultural productivity on food production resilience. The findings indicate that modern agricultural productivity significantly enhances food production resilience, which remains valid after robustness checks, including the exclusion of extreme values and instrumental variable methods. Rural financial vitality and large-scale land management play partial mediating roles in this relationship. By heterogeneity analysis, modern agricultural productivity has a more pronounced effect on enhancing food production resilience in non-major grain-producing regions, while the impact on major grain-producing areas is relatively weaker but still statistically significant. The level of agricultural technology positively moderates the impact of modern agricultural productivity on food production resilience. The findings would provide theoretical support and practical guidance for improving policies on the development of modern agricultural productivity, accurately enhancing food production resilience, and strengthening national food security.

     

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