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米红, 侯妍. 未来我国人口中长期发展对经济社会影响研究(2024—2050)[J]. 中国林业经济, 2024, (1): 71-80. DOI: 10.13691/j.cnki.cn23-1539/f.2024.01.008
引用本文: 米红, 侯妍. 未来我国人口中长期发展对经济社会影响研究(2024—2050)[J]. 中国林业经济, 2024, (1): 71-80. DOI: 10.13691/j.cnki.cn23-1539/f.2024.01.008
MI Hong, HOU Yan. Study on the Impact of Long-term Population Development on Economic and Social Development in China(2024-2050)[J]. China Forestry Economics, 2024, (1): 71-80. DOI: 10.13691/j.cnki.cn23-1539/f.2024.01.008
Citation: MI Hong, HOU Yan. Study on the Impact of Long-term Population Development on Economic and Social Development in China(2024-2050)[J]. China Forestry Economics, 2024, (1): 71-80. DOI: 10.13691/j.cnki.cn23-1539/f.2024.01.008

未来我国人口中长期发展对经济社会影响研究(2024—2050)

Study on the Impact of Long-term Population Development on Economic and Social Development in China(2024-2050)

  • 摘要: 人口老龄化是我国未来发展的重要挑战,未来几十年,我国人口将经历短时期的零增长或轻微性负增长,随后实现恢复性增长,进入高原期阶段。研究发现我国正处于人口生育政策调整的时期,需要通过渐进式延迟退休政策和开发老年人力资源来应对;我国人口老龄化将持续对公共服务产生压力,需要完善人口发展评估指标体系建设,促进人口结构的均衡发展;关注“一老一小”公共服务供给,实现人口与公共服务的优质共享需要建立完善的育儿友好型社会,发展多元化的养老托育服务体系。

     

    Abstract: China is facing the significant challenge of population aging. In the next few decades,China’s population will experience a short period of zero growth or slight negative growth, and then achieve recovery growth and enter a plateau stage. It is found that China is in the period of population policy adjustment, which needs to be dealt with by gradually delaying retirement policy and developing old human resources. The aging of the population in our country will continue to put pressure on the public service. It is necessary to improve the evaluation index system of population development to promote the balanced development of the population structure. Addressing the supply of “one old and one small” public services and achieving high-quality population and public service sharing require the establishment of a child-friendly society and the development of a diversified elderly care service system.

     

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