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王雨琪. 中国碳交易市场与纸浆期货市场的动态相关性研究[J]. 中国林业经济, 2023, (2): 134-139. DOI: 10.13691/j.cnki.cn23-1539/f.2023.02.022
引用本文: 王雨琪. 中国碳交易市场与纸浆期货市场的动态相关性研究[J]. 中国林业经济, 2023, (2): 134-139. DOI: 10.13691/j.cnki.cn23-1539/f.2023.02.022
WANG Yu-qi. Research on the Dynamic Correlation between China's Carbon Trading Market and Pulp Futures Market[J]. China Forestry Economics, 2023, (2): 134-139. DOI: 10.13691/j.cnki.cn23-1539/f.2023.02.022
Citation: WANG Yu-qi. Research on the Dynamic Correlation between China's Carbon Trading Market and Pulp Futures Market[J]. China Forestry Economics, 2023, (2): 134-139. DOI: 10.13691/j.cnki.cn23-1539/f.2023.02.022

中国碳交易市场与纸浆期货市场的动态相关性研究

Research on the Dynamic Correlation between China's Carbon Trading Market and Pulp Futures Market

  • 摘要: 基于DCC-GARCH模型对中国纸浆期货市场与4个碳交易试点市场价格间的动态相关性进行研究,结果表明:中国纸浆期货市场和试点碳市场的交易价格基本呈正相关,存在一定溢出效应,且正向波动趋势随时间推移愈加明朗;两类市场的相关关系短期冲击影响较小,但长期持续程度显著;两类市场的动态相关性及其时变特征存在显著区域性特点,与纸浆期货市场的动态相关程度从强到弱依次为上海、湖北、广东、北京碳市场。时变特征最明显的是与上海碳市场,北京碳市场对纸浆期货市场的信息敏感度不高。基于研究结果提出相关政策建议,对有关部门进行市场风险管理和有效政策制定具有积极意义。

     

    Abstract: Based on the DCC-GARCH model,this paper studied the dynamic correlation between the prices of China’s pulp futures market and the four pilot carbon trading markets. The results showed that the trading prices of China’s pulp futures market and the pilot carbon market were basically positively correlated,with certain spillover effects,and the positive fluctuation trend became clearer with time. The correlation between the two types of markets had little impact on short-term shocks,but its long-term persistence was significant. The dynamic correlation and time-varying characteristics of the two types of markets had significant regional characteristics,and the dynamic correlation with the pulp futures market was Shanghai,Hubei,Guangdong and Beijing carbon market in descending order. The most obvious time-varying characteristics were related to the Shanghai carbon market,and the Beijing carbon market was not very sensitive to the information of the pulp futures market. Based on the research results,it put forward relevant policy suggestions,which was of positive significance for relevant departments to carry out market risk management and effective policy formulation.

     

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