Abstract: As a province with large tourism resources,Xinjiang’s tourism carbon emissions are an important determinant of whether Xinjiang’s “dual carbon” goal can be achieved on time. Therefore,this paper adopted the “bottom-up” measurement method and combined the carbon emissions of the three dimensions of tourism transportation,tourism accommodation and tourism activities into the total carbon emissions of the industry. It measured the net carbon emissions of Xinjiang’s tourism industry on the basis of considering the carbon neutrality capacity of the tourism industry. It used Vensim-PLE software to build a system dynamics simulation model to predict the carbon emissions of Xinjiang’s tourism industry and found a way to achieve the goal of “carbon peaking”. The research conclusions included:①Xinjiang’s tourism industry had strong carbon neutrality capabilities;②According to the current development trend of Xinjiang’s tourism industry,the “carbon peak” under benign industries would not be achieved in 2030;③It’s an effective means to achieve the industry’s goal of “carbon peaking” on time with increasing the forest area of Xinjiang’s tourist scenic spots by 3% on the existing basis,and ensuring the orderly development and protection of other natural tourism resources;On this basis,it made a number of recommendations.